Bahia's key midfielder absence, fatigue, and xG overperformance temper their win probability.

Grêmio's defensive strength, rest advantage, and counter-attacking potential make them more likely to avoid defeat than market implies, despite Bahia spread steam.

Given Bahia's vulnerabilities (injury, fatigue, xG regression) and Grêmio's defensive solidity and counter-threat, Grêmio's chances of winning outright are slightly undervalued.

This offers value by removing the draw outcome.