Celta Vigo hosts Athletic Bilbao in a matchup where forensic tactical indicators diverge from recent market steam. While sharp money has backed Athletic Bilbao, underlying metrics reveal severe defensive vulnerabilities for the visitors, exacerbated by Dani Vivian's absence. Conversely, Celta Vigo displays structural solidity and efficient half-space exploitation under Claudio Giráldez. This creates a sustainable pricing discrepancy, allowing us to target Celta Vigo's stabilized floor and Athletic's transition weaknesses. We anchor our probabilities strictly to market baselines while capturing the tactical edge.