Market signals reveal a decisive shift against Derby County, with sharp money fading the Rams across all negative spreads and backing Swansea City on the Asian lines. Derby's early-season defensive metrics show unsustainable overperformance, masking vulnerabilities that Swansea's possession-heavy, wide-overload system is primed to exploit. Furthermore, significant steam on 'BTTS No' suggests professional bettors anticipate a tightly contested, low-event script where Swansea's territorial dominance neutralizes Derby's low-volume transition attack. The tactical mismatch and regression indicators strongly support the pro-Swansea market momentum.