Despite sharp market steam backing Daejeon Citizen on the -1 spread, forensic tactical data reveals a compelling situational edge for Jeju United. Daejeon faces challenging cross-strait travel and systemic defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an unsustainable 1.65 xGA away from home. Jeju’s compact block and positive offensive regression at home perfectly counter Daejeon’s high-variance, transition-heavy setup. We are fading the away steam, anchoring our positions on Jeju’s structural advantages and the likelihood of a high-event, two-way scoring affair.