Forensic audit of NCAAF matchup between Liberty Flames and Ball State Cardinals reveals structured market inefficiencies. Liberty displays home-field stability alongside a high-variance spread system under Jamey Chadwell, contrasted with Ball State exhibiting severe baseline suppression on the road against elite opposition like Ohio State. Sharp steam patterns indicate early positioning on Ball State underdog lines, yet baseline talent disparities and travel degradation anchor model probabilities closer to the efficient home favorite baseline while maintaining clean value corridors.