Forensic examination of the Ohio Bobcats versus Stonehill Skyhawks mismatch highlights lingering injury vulnerabilities for the FBS hosts, specifically missing core offensive contributors. Despite travel fatigue for the FCS Skyhawks playing consecutive away games, the inflated spread of over 32 points provides viable shelter in lower-tier efficiency projections. Sharp market signals reflect early downward steam on the heavy underdogs, necessitating a disciplined, market-anchored approach to extract modest positive expected value across spread and alternative totals parameters.