The Pittsburgh Penguins open their home slate at PPG Paints Arena against a resilient Montréal Canadiens squad. Market metrics indicate light backing on the home side through early spread movement, contrasting with Montreal's solid road baseline from the previous campaign. While key absences affect Pittsburgh's depth, historical head-to-head metrics point toward a tightly contested, low-margin environment. Our forensic review identifies fractional value aligned with the home underdog and safety-oriented spread parameters as the market corrects toward equilibrium.