Forensic analysis reveals significant value discrepancies in the Spain vs. Austria fixture. Nico Williams' confirmed absence critically impacts Spain's attacking ceiling, reducing their multi-goal win probability and overall goal output. Despite market steam on Austria and BTTS, the underlying metrics and tactical shifts suggest a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Austria's aggressive press may challenge Spain, but a goalfest is unlikely, creating an edge on Under 3.5 goals and Austria covering the spread.