Forensic audit of ALDS Game 1 highlights structural value anchoring around Tampa Bay's rest advantage versus the Yankees' hot bats. Although New York swept the Wild Card round with dominant offense, Aaron Judge's calf strain severely curtails their power ceiling. Tampa Bay enters well-rested with a 55-26 home split, creating actionable discrepancies across both the moneyline and spread markets. Professional pricing indicates a modest home lean where market-anchored probabilities uncover solid expected value within disciplined parameters.