Dinamo Zagreb travel to Norway facing a market that has steamed Viking FK based on home artificial turf advantage and a resilient 2-2 Leg 1 draw. However, forensic analysis reveals a severe underlying metric mismatch; Zagreb dominated xG 2.35 to 0.70 and generated 23 shots to Viking's six. The market drift on Zagreb has created actionable value, particularly exposing a pricing discrepancy between the Draw No Bet and Asian Handicap markets. We target Zagreb's positive regression while acknowledging Viking's vertical transition threat.