Given Seattle's severe injury crisis and poor away form (2-10), Washington is highly likely to cover a -4.5 point spread.

The market's implied probability (0.5102) undervalues Washington's capacity to win by a larger margin against a depleted opponent.

Model probability is anchored to market implied probability within the 1.05x rule.

Seattle's key offensive players (Malonga, Magbegor) are out, significantly reducing their scoring potential.

This will force a less efficient perimeter-reliant offense, leading to a lower overall game total than the market's 159.5 line suggests.

Model probability is anchored to market implied probability (0.5236) within the 1.05x rule.