Nationals' 'red-hot' form and Yankees' depleted lineup make them a strong contender to keep the game close or win outright, providing value on the +1.5 run line.

Yankees' offensive regression is a key factor.

Yankees' critical offensive injuries (Judge, Stanton) severely deplete power, while Nationals are 'red-hot' with high offensive momentum.

Market under-prices Nationals' win probability given the significant personnel disparity.